Improving Estuarine Hydrodynamic Forecasts Through Numerical Model Ensembles

Numerical models are essential tools for the study and analysis of hydrodynamics estuarine systems. However, model results contain uncertainties, which need to be minimized increase accuracy predictions. In this work, ensemble technique is proposed as a solution improve hydrodynamic forecasts regions. Two numerical models, openTELEMAC-MASCARET Delft3D, were considered application two Portuguese estuaries. Superensembles three scenarios (summer, winter, extreme event) built assess effectiveness in improving water level prediction. Various weighing techniques tested construction ensembles. Weighing that consider previous performance each alone outperformed other techniques. This was observed all considered, at sampling points both studied The effect size also analyzed. It found set directly related prediction accuracy, with best provided by superensembles highest number elements. concluded combined use several reduces uncertainty increases reliability consistency predictions